Future projections

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) prepares the sub-national population projections for all local authorities in England. The 2022 based sub-national population projections were published on 24 June 2025. They project forward the mid-2022 population estimates to give an indication of future trends in population by age for the next 25 years, from 2022 to 2047.

These trend-based projections are influenced by past trends in births, deaths and migration, and not by any future developments or policy decisions. They project how the population will change if recent trends continue. The projections are used in many areas of demographic research, including understanding changes in life expectancy and the preparation of the sub-national household projections.

Shropshire headlines:

  • Projected population growth of 8% in the short-term to 2032 and projected growth of 18% in the long-term to 2047. By 2047, Shropshire’s population is projected to reach 386,600, from 327,500 in 2022
  • England and the West Midlands regional population are projected to grow at a significantly lower rate than Shropshire, both in the short-term and long-term
  • Shropshire’s male population is projected to grow by 17%, at a slightly lower level of growth than for females, at 19%
  • The average age in Shropshire is projected reach 50 by 2032
  • The older population (65 years and over) in Shropshire is projected to grow by 51%, from 84,400 in 2022 to 127,600 by 2047. By 2047, this population group will represent a third of Shropshire’s population
  • Younger age groups in Shropshire (0-34 years) are projected to decrease by 5%  by 2047. By 2047, the early year’s population (0-4) will represent only 4% of Shropshire’s total population and the school age population (5-19) only 12%
  • Shropshire’s population growth is entirely fed by net in-migration from within the UK and overseas. Natural change alone (slight decline in births minus rising deaths) is projected to have an increasingly negative impact on population change in Shropshire

Further information on the 2022 based sub-national population projections is available on the Office for National Statistics website.